Florida's Early Vote Is Making Republicans Nervous: a 2.8-Point Lead Where They Expected a Cushion

Florida Republicans expected a comfortable fall. Instead, the early vote has party veterans describing themselves as white-knuckled heading into Tuesday, according to a report published Sunday — and the anxiety centers on Byron Donalds of Naples, the Republican nominee for governor, who holds a narrow polling lead over Democrat David Jolly despite raising $176 million to Jolly's $28 million.

The numbers behind the nerves: as of Saturday afternoon, Republicans led Democrats by just 2.8 percentage points in early votes cast, a far thinner margin than in the last two general elections, in a state where Republicans out-register Democrats by about 11 points and 1.5 million voters. The softest Republican performance is in the Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary — there, Republican turnout is running 3.2 points below 2022 levels, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, compared with 1.1 points below in counties Donalds carried. Democrats have already surpassed their entire 2022 early-and-mail vote total in 15 counties; Republicans have done so in four.

The math that follows is steep. Internal Democratic and Republican estimates shared with Axios put Donalds as many as 500,000 votes behind by Election Day, which would require him to win Tuesday's vote by roughly two to one — a surge Republicans have produced before, but a heavy lift, especially since, by Democratic strategist Steve Schale's count, about 60,000 more 2022 Election Day Republicans than Democrats have already voted, shrinking the pool a Tuesday wave can draw from. State GOP chair Evan Power insists the party's confidence is intact: 'We always win Election Day, and we know how to do this,' he said, adding that the nerves reflect how long it has been — eight years — since Florida Republicans faced a genuinely close election.