New Florida Poll Finds the Governor's Race a Dead Heat Among Decided Voters, With One in Five Still Undecided
A Political Matrix / Listener Group survey of 500 likely voters puts Byron Donalds at 40.3 percent and David Jolly at 38.8 — and Amendment 3 far below the 60 percent it needs, with more than a third of voters undecided.
The race to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis is a statistical dead heat in a new statewide survey released Saturday. The poll, conducted by Political Matrix and The Listener Group among 500 likely Florida voters from October 26 to 28, gives Republican Byron Donalds of Naples 40.3 percent to Democrat David Jolly's 38.8 percent, with 20.9 percent undecided; among voters who have made a choice, Donalds leads 50.9 to 49.1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 points.
In the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Marco Rubio's term, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon 41.8 percent to 35.8 percent, with 22.4 percent undecided — a clearer advantage than the governor's race, but still with more than a fifth of the electorate uncommitted in the final weekend.
Amendment 3 faces the steepest climb. The proposed homestead-exemption expansion — which would raise the non-school exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 — draws 32.8 percent support against 31.3 percent opposed, with 35.8 percent undecided. The amendment needs 60 percent to pass, a threshold its current support sits well below with Election Day on Tuesday.
