Peace River at Arcadia Now Forecast to Crest at 16.7 Feet Thursday Morning as the Flood Warning Is Extended
The National Weather Service's Monday-night update keeps the Flood Warning running for the Peace River at Arcadia, where the river stood at 11.6 feet Monday evening and is headed for a major-flood crest Thursday morning — with Zolfo Springs and the Manatee River both forecast to match crests not seen since the 1940s and 1960s.
The rivers are still rising, and the forecasts now carry dates from another era. In its 8:57 p.m. EST update Monday, the National Weather Service in Tampa Bay continued the Flood Warning for the Peace River at Arcadia at State Road 70 in DeSoto County and for Horse Creek near Arcadia, and extended the warning for the Manatee River near Myakka Head and the Alafia River at Lithia. The Peace River at Arcadia stood at 11.6 feet at 8:30 p.m. Monday and is now forecast to crest at 16.7 feet on Thursday morning — major flood stage. At 16 feet, up to 60 homes in the River Acres community flood, the Weather Service said.
Up and down the system, the numbers point at the record books. The Peace River at Zolfo Springs is forecast to crest at 18.0 feet on Tuesday evening, matching its crest of June 17, 1947. The Manatee River near Myakka Head is forecast to reach 13.3 feet early Tuesday afternoon, matching its crest of July 24, 1967. Horse Creek near Arcadia is forecast at 14.4 feet early Wednesday, when buildings in the Hidden Oak community flood, and the Alafia River at Lithia at 14.5 feet early Wednesday. The heaviest rain has moved out — the Weather Service's afternoon statement said the flash flood threat had ended — but emergency management reported flooding and numerous roads still closed across Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands counties after 5 to 13 inches of rain, and rivers keep climbing on water already on the ground.
For drivers anywhere near the flooded counties, the warning's advice is the whole story: turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads; most flood deaths occur in vehicles; never drive around barricades or through flooded areas. DeSoto County's schools remain closed through Wednesday because of flooding and road conditions, and the Weather Service's next statement on the rivers is due Tuesday at noon EST. Fort Myers and Lee County sit outside the river warnings — Tuesday's danger is inland and north, on the Peace, the Manatee and the creeks around Arcadia, and it runs through the week.
